Earnhardt 1 18

Beware Hendrick drivers at New Hampshire

You know what's odd? Maybe even downright strange?

Here we are at the midway point of the season, and I don't remember spending too much of my blog space talking about the Hendrick Motorsports drivers. Considering they have a five-time champ, a four-time champ and NASCAR's fan favorite, it stood out a little bit.

But I'm a stats guy at heart, so, when their performance tailed off slightly, I had other things to write about. At New Hampshire, however, I think the three Hendrick drivers currently in Chase position will solidify their spots for the playoff run, maybe even take that precious checkered flag.

Let's break down this three-pronged attack, driver by driver:

•  Jimmie Johnson -- Johnson has three career New Hampshire wins, but only one of those has come in the past 14 races at Loudon, that being last spring's race. However, his finishes haven't matched how well he's run, especially in the spring races.

In the past three spring races, nobody's run more fastest laps than Johnson, who has ranked first, first and second in fastest laps run in those races. But his finishes in those three races are first, second and ninth.

•  Dale Earnhardt Jr. -- Junior has never won at New Hampshire, but it doesn't mean he hasn't been fast. Last year, despite his struggles, he finished eighth and fourth in the two Loudon races.

So, ignore Earnhardt's finishes and instead focus on the fact that at the midrace point, he's been running in the top 11 in the past nine races there, and in the top three in four of those events.

•  Jeff Gordon -- Like Johnson, Gordon has won thrice at New Hampshire, but those wins came in 1995, '97 and '98. But don't let that get you thinking he won't be a strong contender Sunday.

Gordon has finished sixth or better in six of the past nine New Hampshire races, taking second in three of those. Plus, his loop data marks are strong -- check out the chart:

So, don't focus just on the wins, and look beyond the numbers for Hendrick Motorsports' strength.

Eliminator: New Hampshire edition

Most people just pick winners -- some by hunches, some by stats, and some by just picking names off the top of their heads.

I don't pick winners -- I pick losers. I'll make my race pick by telling you why all but one driver in the field just can't win.

Earnhardt Jr.'s Chase Chances Starting to Unravel - NASCAR Ranting ...

I originally began writing this post as part of my weekly "Five Things We Learned" set but I quickly realized that there was a lot more than a paragraph to say about Dale Earnhardt Jr.'s chances to make the Chase for the Championship.

In short, Dale Earnhardt Jr. will find himself on the outside looking in when the playoffs begin at Chicagoland Speedway.

Earnhardt finished in 30 at Kentucky, bookending a four-week slide that's seen him fall from third to eight in the championship, 19 points out of tenth. Making matters worse is that Earnhardt is still mired in a 111-race winless streak with only eight races to go until the Chase cutoff. Unless Earnhardt Jr. can win a race over the next seven weeks, recent trends suggest that he will not maintain his top-ten standing.

Summer is not Earnhardt's strongest period with only seven of his 18 career wins coming in the months May through August.

There's little to suggest that this is going to change this summer.

His average finish at tracks over the next eight weeks is 16.7, not nearly enough to make the Chase under any scenario. Watkins Glen (22.9) and Indianapolis (22.2) are looking to be especially dangerous, especially with a points paying system that severely punishes finishes outside of the top-20.

Earnhardt Jr. cannot afford another mulligan.

History suggests that Earnhardt will cave to the pressure of being a contender. He's going to make either a mistake in pit road, flat spot a tire, or place himself in a bad spot just as he's done in 2010, 2009, and every season prior to joining the mega-powered Hendrick stable in 2008. The truth is that Dale Earnhardt Jr. doesn't have the mental makeup or team behind him to make the Chase for the Championship.

Fans are quick to praise new crew chief Steve Letarte for Earnhardt's early turnaround but the future is not as bright as it once appeared.

Don't forget that Jeff Gordon drove the same cars in 2010, a season in which Gordon was one of the most consistent players in the Sprint Cup garage. Despite his model of consistency, Gordon was unable to capitalize at Phoenix, Texas, Las Vegas and Martinsville. His inability to close on wins wore at the chemistry between he and Letarte and Gordon would finish the season ninth in points with zero wins.

This sounds remarkably similar to Earnhardt's 2011 campaign thus far where strong runs and near-wins at Martinsville, Charlotte, and Kansas came up just short. These sorts of near-misses wear on a driver's confidence and Earnhardt was visibly frustrated after cutting a tire with two laps remaining in Saturday's Quaker State 400.

Dale Earnhardt Jr.

Bible Marking Guide

Dale Earnhardt

Ricky Rudd

Dale Earnhardt, Jr, making a legend of his own