Mapping Home-Value Drops by Zip Code

The housing bust could be described as a tale of two collapses: Pain was widespread but it wasn’t always evenly felt.

Stan Humphries, chief economist for the real-estate website Zillow , mapped the price decline from the peak for zip codes in six major metro markets – Seattle, San Francisco, Los Angeles, Washington, D.C., New York and Chicago ( see maps ). The data provide a detailed look inside the anatomy of the downturn: Green dots show declines from the peak that are above the metro average; reds are below the metro average.

Zillow’s maps show that poorer center-city neighborhoods and far-flung suburbs tended to fare worse even as trendy urban neighborhoods or established suburbs managed to either weather the storm with limited damage or see losses half that of other zip codes with 50% or 60% declines.

Los Angeles and San Francisco are particularly clear examples of this, with waterfront corridors or select suburbs that saw value drops less severe than either lower-income neighborhoods in the city or exurbs flooded with supply during the boom (Santa Monica vs. San Bernardino, in other words). Price maps for New York and Washington, D.C. show, once again, that demand for real-estate in places like Manhattan and tony Virginia or Maryland suburbs didn’t disappear as dramatically as it did elsewhere. (There’s even an Upper East Side zip code, 10128, where it’s still like 2006.)

The drops were calculated using the Zillow Home Value Index , which is the median value of all homes and does not include foreclosures or foreclosure resales. Peaks are measured for each market, compared with current values as of April.

Mr. Humphries said several key factors are at work: For one, lower-priced neighborhoods were ground zero for subprime loans, fueling the collapse in those markets. “Everyone has been hit hard by this housing recession,” Mr. Humphries said recently. “But there are big differences in the amount of pain that has been felt by the different price tiers.” This means that the forest-green clusters likely show wealthier areas that held their value better during the downturn. A separate analysis by Zillow split the housing market into three value tiers, showing that the top tier dropped 28% in value from the peak, but the bottom tier dropped 38%.

Other factors were also at work: Excess supply from the boom drove prices down further during the downturn. And certain closer-in suburbs or city neighborhoods now have more cachet as McMansions lose their luster, undermined by changing buyer appetites and rising gas prices. (Christopher Leinberger, a visiting fellow at the Brookings Institution and a smart-growth developer, has argued this point explains much of this price-drop differential.

Washington Dc Zip Codes - News


Mapping Home-Value Drops by Zip Code

Stan Humphries, chief economist for the real-estate website Zillow, mapped the price decline from the peak for zip codes in six major metro markets – Seattle, San Francisco, Los Angeles, Washington, DC, New York and Chicago (see maps).



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Zillow Looks at Home-Value Drops From Market Peak By Zip Code ...

The housing bust could be described as a tale of two collapses: Pain was widespread but it wasn’t always evenly felt.

Stan Humphries, chief economist for the real-estate website Zillow , mapped the price decline from the peak for zip codes in six major metro markets – Seattle, San Francisco, Los Angeles, Washington, D.C., New York and Chicago ( see maps ). The data provide a detailed look inside the anatomy of the downturn: Green dots show declines from the peak that are above the metro average; reds are below the metro average.

Zillow’s maps show that poorer center-city neighborhoods and far-flung suburbs tended to fare worse even as trendy urban neighborhoods or established suburbs managed to either weather the storm with limited damage or see losses half that of other zip codes with 50% or 60% declines.

Los Angeles and San Francisco are particularly clear examples of this, with waterfront corridors or select suburbs that saw value drops less severe than either lower-income neighborhoods in the city or exurbs flooded with supply during the boom (Santa Monica vs. San Bernardino, in other words). Price maps for New York and Washington, D.C. show, once again, that demand for real-estate in places like Manhattan and tony Virginia or Maryland suburbs didn’t disappear as dramatically as it did elsewhere. (There’s even an Upper East Side zip code, 10128, where it’s still like 2006.)

The drops were calculated using the Zillow Home Value Index , which is the median value of all homes and does not include foreclosures or foreclosure resales. Peaks are measured for each market, compared with current values as of April.

Mr. Humphries said several key factors are at work: For one, lower-priced neighborhoods were ground zero for subprime loans, fueling the collapse in those markets. “Everyone has been hit hard by this housing recession,” Mr. Humphries said recently. “But there are big differences in the amount of pain that has been felt by the different price tiers.” This means that the forest-green clusters likely show wealthier areas that held their value better during the downturn. A separate analysis by Zillow split the housing market into three value tiers, showing that the top tier dropped 28% in value from the peak, but the bottom tier dropped 38%.

Other factors were also at work: Excess supply from the boom drove prices down further during the downturn. And certain closer-in suburbs or city neighborhoods now have more cachet as McMansions lose their luster, undermined by changing buyer appetites and rising gas prices. (Christopher Leinberger, a visiting fellow at the Brookings Institution and a smart-growth developer, has argued this point explains much of this price-drop differential.


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